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Article Carrying Capacity by Frosty Wooldridge The Black Forest News, Volume 43, Number 29, Page 2 March 6, 2003 www.blackforestnews-co.com Drought conditions in Colorado send shivers through depression era farmers who remember the swirling dust that darkened the "skies that are not cloudy all day." Seventy years later, rain and snow remain constant, especially in the semi-arid West. Fortunately, during those decades since the Great Depression, the Rocky Mountains' Colorado River generated ample water for farms and cities with enough extra to send into the parched Imperial Valley of California. Arizona gulped huge quotas while Mexico watched the remainder dribble into the Pacific Ocean. Most Americans don't remember the dust bowl days. Yet, in the past two decades, critical changes occurred that took Nature by surprise in the West. What were they? Progress, population and growth roared through Colorado like a combine through a wheat field. California jumped to 35 million people. In excess of 1.2 million slammed into Colorado. The Unites States accelerated in growth by 33 million people in the 1990s. That created an equation that factors in a new term, 'carrying capacity'. It means the amount of people that a finite amount of land and resources can sustain in the long term. Population equals consumption and water equals survival. But a recent report caused alarm. Andrew Bridges wrote: 'DROUGHT: GLOBAL WARMING FORECAST FOR THE WEST'. He noted that Global Warming will create a devastating effect on the availability of water in the Western United States. Meteorologists predict a 'best-case' scenario will be a train wreck. Supplies will fall short of projected demands for water by cities, farms and wildlife. To forestall the crisis, Colorado Governor Bill Owens wants to cut the forests-- creating more water run-off from mountain slopes. His opponents demand more dam construction. Environmentalists call for conservation. "You'd like there to be some good news in there somewhere but unfortunately, there is not," said Tim Barnett, a physicist at Scripps Institution. "Overall precipitation levels are likely to remain constant, but warmer temperatures mean what would have fallen as snow will instead come down as rain. Snow holds itself in the mountains like Nature's dam and lets it out slowly over the summer in snowmelt. Rain fills rivers and drains immediately." Westerners can expect the following: --Reservoir levels along the Colorado River will drop by more than 1/3 and releases by 17 percent. The lower levels will cut hydropower by 40 percent. --On the Columbia River system, there will be water in the summer and fall to generate electricity, or in the spring and summer for salmon runs, but not both. What is the main issue? "The problem in the West is not climate change, it's too many people using too much water," said Bill Patzert, a NASA research oceanographer. "If nothing happens, we're in trouble. If something happens as in 'more growth', it's worse." That leads to an underlying dilemma. Where is the trade off between sustainability and 'carrying capacity' versus unlimited growth that places all citizens on the brink of crisis? For the first time in this country, Americans face limits they've never encountered before. How many people can Colorado sustain? How about California? Do Americans charge ahead into a brick wall of reality and hope for the best or make profound directional changes in their national population compass? Will they end up like China or choose a proactive course for the future of their children? Ironically, political leaders who refuse to make the 'model' change toward a viable society--by their inaction--create unimaginable consequences for average citizens and their children in 2050. Will technology save the day? Many have asked why humanity should push itself to a limit where science is the last desperate hope. It may be up to average citizens to yell, even stomp their collective feet for change. Unfortunately, most people sit, watch, wait and listen. They act only when a crisis affects them personally. In this case, they may appreciate the crisis will affect their children, thus causing them to take action. If you are a citizen who demands action before the crisis affects you or your children, write me on how overpopulation has changed your life or is affecting you. By acting today, you will change the future and leave this world a better place for your children. I will return with web sites where you can call, write, email and affect change. It's important for every citizen to take action while action can still be taken. Home |