Joke of the day: U.S. illegal alien population falls below 11 million

The Washington Post just reported in the January 20, 2016 article U.S. illegal immigrant population falls below 11 million, continuing nearly decade-long decline, report says:

The illegal immigrant population in the United States has fallen below 11 million, continuing a nearly decade-long decline that has the potential to reshape the debate over reforming the nation’s immigration system, according to a study released Wednesday.

The total undocumented immigrant population of 10.9 million is the lowest since 2003, says the report from the Center for Migration Studies, a New York think tank. The number of undocumented immigrants has fallen each year since 2008, the report says, driven primarily by a steady decline in illegal migrants from Mexico...

With its release as voting nears in the 2016 presidential primaries, the 15-page document could impact the fiery debate over immigration unfolding on the campaign trail...

What a joke! Who would believe a report such as this? Answer: the Washington Post.

Why would a questionable report such as this be issued now? Answer: the story clearly points out that this could impact the 2016 election. For example, donor-controlled candidates could now state with presumed authority that America's illegal alien population is voluntarily declining, thus invalidating Trump's call for a border fence. In politics, timing is everything.

How could America's illegal alien population suddenly drop from a high of 38 million down to under 11 million? Answer: it can't, unless you fudge the numbers.

Getting down to the numbers

It all hinges on how - or whether - you count the number of illegal aliens in the United States.

The mainstream media, whenever it actually mentions the number of illegal aliens living in the United States, categorically quotes the official government figure of approximately 11 million. This number originated with the Department of Homeland Security, which in December 2003 estimated 8 million to 12 million illegal aliens resided in the United States and that 700,000 new illegals enter each year and remain in the country. Those stale and outdated estimates have not changed for twelve years, even though the official annual increase alone would yield a corrected estimate of 15.7 million to 19.7 million illegal aliens today (not adjusting for Obama's unconstitutional 2014 executive amnesty).  

William Campenni writes in his December 29, 2015 Daily Signal article You Only Think You Know How Many Illegal Immigrants Live in the US:

Call any journalist, pundit, anchor, strategist or lobbyist and ask: 1. How many illegal immigrants [illegal aliens] are in the United States? 2. What is your source for that number?

Almost without exception he or she will answer: 1.  11 million. 2. The Pew Research Center.

For a decade now, no number has been given greater certitude and less investigation than that. Not even the number of planets in our solar system has enjoyed such constancy and acceptance.

Since so much of the national discourse, debate, culture and treasure hinges on the accuracy of the number 11 million, one would think that some enterprising reporter would seek his Pulitzer by validating or debunking it.

Nope. Just unquestioned faith. No curiosity as to the source for that iconic value, or the methodology creating it.

So the correct answers are: 1. Nobody really knows. 2. It’s not Pew...

Three main players were involved in generating that number of 11 million illegal immigrants: Pew Research Center, the Center for Immigration Studies and the Department of Homeland Security. But they were only masseurs of the source data, which comes from the Census Bureau by means of two surveys: the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey...

Pew claims impartiality, but the methodologists for its numbers come from decidedly liberal roots such as the Brookings Institution and the Urban Institute.  The Center for Immigration Studies approaches the question from the side of more controlled and limited immigration flows. Homeland Security is a bureaucracy with a presidentially appointed secretary who carries out administration policies.

The Census Bureau’s surveys are conducted both by mail and in-person visits to selected homes. Neither asks directly, “Are you in the United States illegally?”...

All of these estimates rely on what is called the residual method of estimation, which in Pew’s methodology equates to: C (illegal immigrants) = A (total foreign born) – B (estimated number of legal immigrants)...

In actuality, the number of illegal aliens who evaded capture at out border isn't 11 million - it's much, much higher. See the research included below. 

Those who without exception regurgitate the 11 million number are mindlessly - or deliberately - engaging in perpetuating a big lie. In fact, the Big Lie is a formal debating technique where something is repeated endlessly until it is finally accepted as fact.

For those who understand the numbers, the Big Lie becomes a Big Joke.


CAIRCO Research

How many illegal aliens reside in the United States?

How many illegal aliens reside in the United States? A methodology using Border Patrol "got away" statistics, by Fred Elbel.

How many illegal aliens are in the U.S.?, The Social Contract journal, Summer 2007 issue.


Related articles

Ann Coulter: ‘The Government Hasn’t the First Idea How Many Illegal Aliens Are in the Country’, Breitbart, January 21, 2016.

...As Coulter says in Adios America, her latest bestselling book on immigration which came out right before Donald Trump’s rise to prominence in the 2016 GOP presidential primaries last summer, the government estimates the number of illegal aliens based on census surveys.

But, as she says: “People who have left their families, paid huge sums of money to smugglers, trekked thousands of miles, and broken American law to enter this country don’t have much incentive to fill out questionnaires from the U.S. government.”

Demonstrating the government’s usual brilliance, Coulter’s Adios America notes that the census “tried to account for the reluctance of illegal aliens to answer government surveys by adding 10 percent to their population estimate. Guess where they got 10 percent? From another survey of illegals. In 2001, the University of California asked Mexican-born residents of Los Angeles if they had taken the recent census. Ten percent said ‘no.’ But almost 40 percent refused to take that survey.”

Meanwhile, as far back as 1990, Coulter writes, anthropologist Maxine Margolis found “that the Brazilian consulate counted 100,000 Brazilians living in New York City, while the Brazilian foreign office put the number at 230,000. That same year, the 1990 census reported that only 9,200 Brazilians lived in New York City.”...

This all comes on the heels of a new bombshell report from the Department of Homeland Security that shows there are nearly half a million illegal aliens inside America who overstayed visas for temporary work matters or for tourism.