population

Analysis Of Future Immigration Flow In Gang Of Eight Amnesty - Legal Status for 57 Million

The Gang of Eight has stated, “this legislation does not significantly increase long-term, annual migration to the United States” and has indicated the legislation shift the United States from low-skill and chain migration to high-skill merit-based. Conspicuously, however, they have refused to provide an estimate of future flow. A conservative analysis of the legislation, with low-range estimates for the new and expanded visa programs, reveals that the proposal would dramatically increase the future flow of low-skill workers and chain migration and provide legal status and work authorization to 30 million immigrants over the next 10 years—who will then be able to bring in family members, initiating a wave of non-merit-based chain migration that will greatly increase low-skilled immigration. Another 25 million individuals will be granted nonimmigrant work visas over that same time frame. This proposal, being rushed through the Senate, will have sweeping legal and social consequences, and—while benefiting the special interests who helped write it behind closed doors—will cause substantial economic harm to both American citizens and current legal immigrants.

Here is a shorthand way of looking at the explosive growth in the number of people who will be granted work authorization and permanent residency over the next 10 years, largely on a non-merit based track:

An estimated 2.5 million DREAM beneficiaries of any age (including those no longer living in the country) will be eligible for citizenship in five years.
DREAM beneficiaries will be able to bring in an unlimited number of parents, spouses, and children (not subject to any cap) and those spouses, children, and parents will get permanent legal status in five years and be eligible for citizenship in 10.
An estimated 800,000 illegal agricultural workers will become legal permanent residents (green card holders) in five years and will then be eligible to bring in an unlimited number of spouses and children.
An estimated 8 million additional illegal immigrants, including recent arrivals and millions of visa overstays, will receive legal status and work authorization. These 8 million will be able to bring in their relatives as soon as 10 years from now. Those relatives, over time, will be able to bring in spouses, children, and parents.
An estimated 4.5 million aliens awaiting employment and family-based visas under current cap limitations will be cleared in less than 10 years, not subject to the family-based annual cap (thus freeing up room for more family-based migration that is subject to the annual cap).

The bill increases the level of immigration through current and new visa systems. Here are just some examples of how the bill increases legal immigration through visas:

The bill creates a new merit based visa, which allows for up to 250,000 visas annually. If a little over half of the visas are issued over a 10-year period, the increase in the number of immigrants would be 1,250,000.
The bill creates a new guest worker program (W-1) for low-skilled workers with a cap of 200,000 visas annually. If a little over a half of the guest workers visas available are issued over a 10-year period, the increase in the number of immigrants would be 1,000,000.
The bill creates a new nonimmigrant agricultural workers program (W-3 & W-4 visa) which allows up to 112,333 annually. If half of the visas are issued over a 10-year period, the increase in the number of nonimmigrants would be 561,665.
The bill exempts Priority Workers (EB-1 under current law), STEM graduates, and spouses and children of LPRs from the employment-based visa caps. By taking the average number of immigrants in the two exempt categories over the past 10 years, the exemption will account for an additional 762,000 immigrants over 10 years.
The bill increases the H-1B visa cap up to 180,000 with a floor of 110,000. If half of the H-1B visas are issued over a 10-year period, the increase in the number of immigrants would be 1,450,000.
The bill leaves current employment visa caps unchanged and moderately decreases family caps, allowing 301,000 visas a year with some exemptions, but allows for unused visas from 1992 through 2013 to be recaptured. Over a 10-year period, the number of legal immigrants would be 3,879,094.

The total number of immigrants obtaining legal status from the programs listed above is 24,702,759 over a 10-year period. That number does not include other immigrant and nonimmigrant visa programs in the bill (i.e. refugee and asylum seekers, W-1 visas, W-2 visas, W-3 visas, W-4 visas), nor does it include student visas who are now allowed dual intent.

The Gang of Eight’s bill will drastically increase low-skill chain migration. Some of the chain categories are subject to an annual family-based visa cap of 161,000, including adult unmarried sons and daughters of citizens or LPRs, and married sons and daughters (under the age of 31) of U.S. citizens. However, the bill completely exempts the largest categories of chain migrants from the family- and employment-based visa caps, including spouses and children of LPRs or citizens and parents of citizens. The following illustrates how the exempt chain migration categories will dramatically increase the future flow by millions of immigrants over the next 10 years:

An estimate 2–3 million DREAM beneficiaries are eligible for legal permanent residency and citizenship after just 5 years. After receiving LPR status, the DREAMers may bring a spouse and child through the bill’s exempt chain category and, once granted citizenship, can bring their parents as well (not subject to cap). Assuming 1 million DREAMers bring any combination of two people, the future flow of immigrants would increase by over 2 million. This does not include other chain migrants that a DREAMer may petition under the caps, including adult unmarried sons and daughters, and married sons and daughters. Subsequently, the chain migrants will have the same opportunity to petition for their relatives in the same manner as the DREAMers.

In sum, over the first decade, the total number granted will be well over 32 million (not taking into account chain migration from increased legal flow). Adding in all the various categories of nonimmigrant work visas, and the number climbs to more than 57 million. Further, because approximately 7 million illegal immigrants are on a 13-year track to citizenship, there will be a second wave of chain migration initiated just outside the 10-year window (substantially increasing the net low-skill immigration).

CAIRCO Research:

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population

illegal immigration

amnesty

Jeb Bush touts family-focused, 'fertile' immigrants as economic boon

Speaking to religious conservatives Friday, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush said that welcoming immigrants to the United States will be an economic boon because they are hard-working, family-oriented and “more fertile.”

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush speaks at the Faith & Freedom Coalition conference on June 14 in Washington.

"Immigrants create far more businesses than native-born Americans,” Bush said in remarks to the Faith and Freedom Coalition in Washington D.C. “Immigrants are more fertile, and they love families, and they have more intact families, and they bring a younger population. Immigrants create an engine of economic prosperity."

Bush, who is mulling a 2016 bid, also argued that there are too few young people paying into a system to support a larger number of older Americans because native-born fertility rates are going down.

While Bush’s arguably awkward phrasing earned Twitter jabs, data shows that immigrants do have a higher fertility RATE than women born in the United States.

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population

immigration

Republican

10,105 applications submitted for deportation relief through the end of March just from Colorado

10,105 applications submitted for deportation relief-Colorado

Aug. 1, 2012, through March 31, 2013

Country of birth - Number of illegal alien applicants

Mexico 9,324
El Salvador 206
Guatemala 102
Honduras 78
South Korea 63
Peru 51
Mongolia 39
Indonesia 33
Colombia 25
Chile 13
Other countries 171

Total 10,105

*Includes approved, denied and pending cases.

Source: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services

CAIRCO Research

The Fiscal Cost of Sprawl -Colorado

Residents of Colorado, especially those of us along the Front Range, have become very familiar with the negative impacts of sprawling development: traffic congestion, loss of open space, air and water pollution, and long commutes.

What most people do not know is that this development directly costs them money.

Fiscal Impact Analysis (FIA) is described as “A projection of the direct, current, public costs and revenues associated with residential and non-residential growth to the local jurisdiction in which the growth is taking place

Colorado State Subsidies-2003

The federal and state governments also provide subsidies to local governments for public infrastructure development and private individuals and companies for housing development.

State Subsidies

Colorado Department of Local Affairs – Colorado Housing Private Activity Bond Program-This program provides private industry with tax-exempt Private Activity Bonds for a variety of economic development projects including residential rental projects, multi-family housing projects, water, sewer, and solid waste disposal facilities. Recent awards include $11 million to the Village at Avon and $2 million to the Highland Garden Village for rental housing.

Governor’s Office of Economic Development And International Trade – Infrastructure Grant Program Grants are provided for the construction of publicly owned water and wastewater facilities and lines, roadways, railroad spurs, lighting, sidewalks, natural gas lines, or electrical services.

Drinking Water Revolving Fund-This fund provides low-interest state funds later capitalized with federal dollars for drinking water projects.

Colorado Water Resources and Power Development Authority – Small Water Resources Projects Program. This state program helps local governments finance storage reservoirs, water and wastewater treatment, distribution, wells, and pumping stations.

Colorado Water Resources and Power Development Authority Planning or Design Grant Grants to assist communities with populations under 10,000 trying to get grants for DWRF or WPCRF projects.

Colorado Water Conservation Board Construction Fund-Provides state funds for low-interest loans for water-resource projects.

Colorado Water Conservation Board Small Project Loan Program-Provides loans of up to $1 million for small projects for new raw water facilities or repairs of existing facilities

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environment

population

President

Immigration Deluge Will Drain Water Resources

As the Obama administration attempts to press its version of immigration reform through Congress, here are three relevant issues unlikely to be considered in the debate.

First, you probably won't hear a thing about droughts, either present or future. Yet according to the Science World Report website, 2013 has the potential to outdo the record drought of 2012...

Second, you'll hear no mention of the fact that the Colorado River -- which serves the needs of 40 million people living in the Southwest and irrigates 4 million acres of farmland growing 15 percent of the nation's food -- is drying up...

Third, don't expect to hear about how our rapidly growing population is depleting groundwater resources...

What does immigration reform have to do with water shortages? Plenty.

The vast majority of U.S. population growth since the 1970s has been fueled by massive legal and illegal immigration and the children of new immigrants. The fertility rate of U.S.-born American women has been at replacement level since that time.

There's irrefutable evidence that the U.S. is on the verge of a major water shortage.

Wouldn't it be easier to have a national conversation about the environmental impact of mass immigration and to make a rational decision about the number of immigrants we might comfortably accommodate?... Read more about Immigration Deluge Will Drain Water Resources

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Sessions: Gang of 8 would give legal status to 57 million, including non-immigrant visas

An analysis of future immigration flow released Friday by Alabama Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions shows that more than 32 million immigrants [illegal aliens] would receive legal status over the next decade and an additional 25 million would be granted non-immigrant work visas under the Gang of Eight’s immigration bill.

On a conference call with reporters about the analysis Sessions explained that number of legal immigrants over the next decade “exceeds the population of California, our largest state, and will have a very significant impact on our economy and the American people.”

“[O]ver the first decade, the total number [of legal status] granted will be well over 32 million (not taking into account chain migration from increased legal flow),” the analysis reads. “Adding in all the various categories of nonimmigrant work visas, the number climbs to more than 57 million.”

The 57 million estimate includes the 11.1 million to 40 million] illegal immigrants already in the country, who would receive legal status under the Gang of Eight’s immigration bill...

CAIRCO Research:

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population

legal immigration

Immigration to fuel future population growth

Immigration will be the primary driver of population growth in the United States within a few decades, a milestone not seen in almost two centuries, the Census Bureau projected Wednesday.

The Census Bureau said immigration will outstrip natural increase — the difference between births and deaths for the total population - by as early as 2027, but no later than 2038. The differing scenarios depend on how many immigrants continue coming to the U.S.

If immigration levels are high, the census said, non-Hispanic whites would become a minority in the country as early as 2041...

CAIRCO Notes:

This article rests upon the fundamental but flawed thesis that Americans have no right to control our demographic destiny.

American women voluntarily reached replacement level fertility (2.1 children per woman) in 1972. Yet mass immigration is driving US population to double within the lifetimes of children born today.

America is not the dumping ground for foreign job seekers in transit looking for subsistence-level wages. Similarly, America is not simply an assemblage of consumers bettering the corporate bottom line.

The United States can not grow indefinitely with finite borders. We are already severely impacting our sustaining ecosystems, while siphoning resources - notably petroleum - from foreign nations.

We have every right - and responsibility - to control our population destiny.

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Has America become an immigrant nation?

Posted by Fred Elbel on May 13, 2013

Has America become an immigrant nation? Manifesting boorish repetition, open borders Marxists incessantly assert that America is a nation of immigrants. The spin this time around is to declare the United States an "immigrant nation" in a strident attempt to rationalize amnesty for illegal aliens.

While some foolishly claim that "America is a nation of immigrants," the reality is that humanity has been migrating for 40,000 years. All countries are nations of immigrants. Even the American Indians migrated across the Bering Strait from the Siberian Highlands.

At over 315 million people, America is now full, and it makes no sense to endlessly grow U.S. population. Indeed, infinite growth within America's borders is a physical impossibility.

U.S. population is projected to double this century - within the lifetimes of children born today. 70% of this doubling will be caused by mass immigration - by recent immigrants and their descendents. That will require roughly twice as many hospitals, schools, houses, cars, roads, prisons, water treatment facilities, etc. The result will be twice as much sprawl, pollution, and pressure on our dwindling natural resources and the resources, such as petroleum, that we draw from other countries.

It would be prudent to stop growing before the resulting damage becomes irreversible. We can do so simply by enforcing existing immigration laws, making e-Verify mandatory, and abstaining from amnesty.

We are notably a country of Americans. Our country purportedly is governed according to American interests, not the interests of foreign job seekers looking to displace American workers.

The late U.S. Congresswoman, Barbara Jordan stated that:

"It is both a right and a responsibility of a democratic society to manage immigration so that it serves the national interest."

The open borders socialists - Obama included - have abrogated that responsibility, and in doing so are bequeathing a dire legacy to American children of all races, creeds, and colors. That legacy will be an America transformed from a once great sovereign nation into a borderless, overpopulated regional pit stop for foreign job seekers.

1 in 10 adults in L.A. County, CA is in the U.S. illegally

In some parts of Koreatown and South Los Angeles, one in three adult residents is in the country illegally, according to a study released Tuesday by researchers at USC.

Countywide, about one in 10 adults is an immigrant who crossed the border illegally or overstayed a visa, the study found. Many of those immigrants have put down roots here: Half have been in the country for more than a decade, and 12% are homeowners.

Many are also the parents of American citizens. In Los Angeles County, one in five children has a parent living in the country illegally, according to the study.

In Los Angeles County, 63% of immigrants here illegally are from Mexico and 22% from Central America, according to the study. Eight percent are from the Philippines, Korea or China.

In the Bay Area, the percentage of Asians in the unauthorized population is much higher, 23%. In the Sacramento area, 8% of immigrants in the country illegally are from Russia and other parts of the former Soviet Union.

[...] Immigrants residing in L.A. County illegally make a median wage of $18,000 a year, compared with $47,000 for U.S.-born residents. Half work in factories, restaurants, construction or house cleaning, the study found. Only 33% have health insurance.

Nearly half of the county's immigrants here illegally lack a high school diploma, and 60% do not speak English well, according to the study ...

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GOP wants more border security in immigration bill

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Sessions: ‘Gang of 8′ would give legal status to 57 million, including non-immigrant visas

An analysis of future immigration flow released Friday by Alabama Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions shows that more than 32 million immigrants [and illegal aliens] would receive legal status over the next decade and an additional 25 million would be granted non-immigrant work visas under the Gang of Eight’s immigration bill.

...Sessions explained that number of legal immigrants over the next decade “exceeds the population of California, our largest state, and will have a very significant impact on our economy and the American people.”

According to the analysis presented by the senator, the high immigration estimate derived from visa program proposals in a revised 867-page bill crafted by a bipartisan group of eight senators shows that the bill would vastly increase the level of future “low-skill” immigration.

The 57 million estimate includes the 11.1 million [to 40 million] illegal immigrants [illegal aliens] already in the country, who would receive legal status under the Gang of Eight’s immigration bill.

On the increase of new workers, Sessions did not mince words.

“This large flow of workers will impact working Americans significantly. It will reduce their salaries; dynamic scoring will not change that,” Sessions said, addressing one of the criticisms leveled against past immigration analyses.

“We have a time in this country when there is a growing failure of working Americans wages to keep up with inflation. That has been going on for more than a decade, some say 15, 30 years. And a large flow of low-skilled workers does impact the wages of Americans,” Sessions added. "...we have 90 million people outside the work force, 47 million on food stamps. Shouldn’t we be working to make sure every single American citizen now dependent on the social services of the government be provided the first opportunity to achieve a good job with decent pay with a retirement plan and a healthcare plan?” Sessions asked...

...Gang of Eight member Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio’s spokesman pointed The Daily Caller to a “Myth vs. Fact” series the senator’s office has been dispatching to attempt to dispel negative findings about the bill...

CAIRCO Research

United States Population is 315.8 million according to the US Census Bureau, and currently US population grows by one international migrant (net) every 44 seconds. 32 million new immigrants is equivalent to 10 percent of today's US population.

One out of ten people will be an immigrant brought here under the Gang Amnesty Bill.

This must certainly be music to the ears of GOP corporate sponsors who want an unending stream of cheap foreign labor - and ever more consumers. With an increasing base of consumers, corporate special interests won't have to invest to compete among a static consumer base. In other words, a growing pie means profits for all.

And of course the Democrats know that every new "immigrant" will be an "undocumented Democrat".

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Poll: One Third of Mexicans Would Move to U.S.

...A national opinion survey of Mexico by the Pew Research Center, conducted March 4-17 among 1,000 adults, finds that roughly two-thirds (66%) of Mexicans have a favorable opinion of the U.S. – up from 56% a year ago and dramatically higher than it was following the passage of Arizona’s restrictive immigration law in 2010, when favorable Mexican attitudes toward the United States slipped to 44%...

Mexicans are also now more of the view that the U.S. takes their country’s interests into account when deciding international policy. About half (51%) say Washington considers their country’s interests...

More than 11 million Mexicans live in the U.S., including about 6 million [to 40 million] who are in the country illegally. Mexicans are divided on whether this is good or bad for their country...

About six-in-ten Mexicans (61%) say they would not move to the U.S. even if they had the means and opportunity to do so. However, a sizable minority (35%) say they would move to the U.S. if they could, including 20% who say they would emigrate [illegally] without authorization.

9Mexicans are less likely than they were a year ago to say that people from their country who move to the U.S. have a better life there; 47% say life is better in the U.S., compared with 53% in 2012. About one-in-five (18%) say Mexicans have a worse life in the U.S., while 29% say it is neither better nor worse. However, among those who have close friends or relatives living in the U.S., 70% say these friends or relatives have achieved their goals, while just 25% believe they have been disappointed.

Three-in-ten Mexicans say they personally know someone who went to the U.S. but returned to Mexico because the person could not find work. About a quarter (27%) know someone who has been deported or detained by the U.S. government for immigration reasons in the last 12 months...

CAIRCO Research:

As of May 3, 2013, US population was 315, 788, 230 according to the US Census Bureau.

Mexico's population was 116,147,000 and total fertility was 2.3 as of mid-2012, according to the Population Reference Bureau.

35 percent of Mexico's population who would migrate to the United States amounts to a staggering 40,651,450. That's 40 million people, or nearly 13 percent of the total US population.

The 20 percent of Mexico's population who state they would sneak into the United States illegally, amounts to 23,229,400, or 7.4 percent of the total US population.

Thus, with our incredibly porous border, and the undeniable attraction of promises of amnesty, we can rest assured that a sizeable portion of these millions will try to sneak into the United States as illegal aliens.

It should be noted that the old, outdated number of illegal aliens currently living in the United States is 11 million. Other analyses estimate that up to 40 million illegal aliens have escaped capture at our border and are living in the United States. These are the cumulative numbers of illegal aliens since the original 1986 IRCA amnesty for illegal aliens.

Thus, if all of the people in Mexico who said they would sneak into the US illegally actually did so, the number would amount to twice the official count of all illegal aliens currently living in the United States. If all of the people in Mexico who want to emigrate into the United States actually did so, it would amount to the total number of illegal aliens already living in the US as estimated by alternative studies.

It doesn't stop there. Mexico's mid-2050 population will be 143,924,800, according to the Population Reference Bureau. That's an increase of 27,777,800. Assuming the same interest in migrating to the US, an additional 5,555,560 Mexicans will want to sneak illegally into the US, and a total of 9,722,230 will intend to migrate to the US. That's in addition to the numbers today, calculated above, who want to migrate to the US.

The United States is under no obligation to act as Mexico's population relieve valve and to be forced to accept up to 50,373,680 new job seekers by 2050. That 50 million would be nearly 16 percent of today's US population.

Why would we want to grow US population by another 16 percent within 40 years?

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