Demographic shift in Germany accelerating faster than predicted
Thilo Sarrazin, the former Bundesbank board member whose 2010 book “Deutschland schafft sich ab” (“Germany Is Abolishing Itself”) sparked controversy, has returned to the spotlight with a revised edition of his bestseller — arguing that his original predictions about mass migration and demographic transformation in Germany have been dramatically surpassed by reality...
He noted that his demographic model had assumed annual net immigration of between 50,000 and 100,000 people, based on official forecasts at the time. In the decade since, however, Germany has averaged 500,000 new arrivals per year, a majority of whom come from outside the European Union and from predominantly Muslim-majority countries.
“Back then, I predicted that within a few decades, Germans would become a minority in their own homeland,” Sarrazin said. “But it will come much sooner.”...
He predicts that by 2070, roughly 80 percent of all births will be to non-German mothers, with the majority being Muslim...
The fact is not only that the decline of primary education has progressed much further than I expected, but also that there remain roughly the same differences in performance between groups of pupils based on their background,” he said...
Related
Is Islam a Problem? by John Derbyshire, Chronicles, August 2025:
... If you follow one of the Abrahamic religions but favor a humane, commonsense approach to worldly matters, there are some scriptural passages you should ignore.
Unfortunately, not all believers can ignore the obnoxious aspects of their scripture. All three of our faiths contain minorities of intolerant supremacists. I don’t see how it can be denied that in Islam today, those minorities are unusually large and malign.
And bold. A common image in the news media of our Western nations today shows great hosts of Muslim men kneeling in ranks and files across major highways to pray, in cities with plenty of mosques they could use. To really drive their point home, a group of Muslims last August gathered for prayer in the grounds of Westminster Abbey, the Church of England’s most sacred site. Also in our nations, urban tranquility is being banished by the Muslim call to prayer five times a day, broadcast over whole neighborhoods. That arrogant supremacism is a problem. It is inherently incompatible with Western civilization and liberal political institutions...
If we can’t have the moratorium on all immigration, which, 60 years on from Hart-Celler, we are surely due for, can we at least end further settlement by Muslims?