Demographic shift in Germany accelerating faster than predicted
Thilo Sarrazin, the former Bundesbank board member whose 2010 book “Deutschland schafft sich ab” (“Germany Is Abolishing Itself”) sparked controversy, has returned to the spotlight with a revised edition of his bestseller — arguing that his original predictions about mass migration and demographic transformation in Germany have been dramatically surpassed by reality...
He noted that his demographic model had assumed annual net immigration of between 50,000 and 100,000 people, based on official forecasts at the time. In the decade since, however, Germany has averaged 500,000 new arrivals per year, a majority of whom come from outside the European Union and from predominantly Muslim-majority countries.
“Back then, I predicted that within a few decades, Germans would become a minority in their own homeland,” Sarrazin said. “But it will come much sooner.”...
He predicts that by 2070, roughly 80 percent of all births will be to non-German mothers, with the majority being Muslim...
The fact is not only that the decline of primary education has progressed much further than I expected, but also that there remain roughly the same differences in performance between groups of pupils based on their background,” he said...
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