Ivy League Study: Illegal Population is 22 Million, Double Establishment Estimate

Article author: 
Neil Munro
Article publisher: 
Article date: 
21 September 2018
Article category: 
Our American Future
Article Body: 

The population of illegal [alien] migrants is roughly 22 million, or twice the establishment estimate of 11 million, say three professors from Yale University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The shocking estimate will force establishment politicians and pro-migration advocates to recalculate the estimated impact of the huge illegal population on wages and salaries, on crime rates, welfare consumption, rental and real-estate prices, productivity rates, and the distribution of job-creating investment funds to coastal vs. heartland states.

The higher illegal population estimate helps explain why Americans’ wages and salaries have risen so little amid apparently record-low unemployment rates, and it also undercuts companies’ loud demands for yet more immigration of foreign workers, consumers, and renters....

We have a conservative estimate that the number is at least 16.7 million,” said Edward Kaplan, an operations research professor at Yale. The study used “over 1 million scenarios accounting for all of the variability in the various parameters that we need for this model [and] on average, we’re estimating something like 22 million undocumented immigrants in the United States.”...

The new estimate uses new sources of data, such as the fingerprints of migrants caught at the Mexican border, said Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi, a senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management. In contrast, the current estimate of 11.3 million is based on the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey. “It’s been the only method used for the last three decades,” says Fazel-Zarandi....

The Yale study complements the Census Bureau’s new estimate of the nation’s population and workforce. The bureau concluded the nation has been enlarged by 44.5 million legal or illegal immigrants, plus 17 million children of legal immigrants. Together, the new estimates conclude that the nation’s has a record-breaking foreign-born population of 55 million migrants.

That number is roughly 16.9 percent of the population, or roughly one person [in] six living in the United States....


The actual study: The number of undocumented immigrants [illegal aliens] in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016, by Mohammad M. Fazel-Zarandi, Jonathan S. Feinstein, Edward H. Kaplan, PLOS, September 21, 2018

Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants [illegal aliens] as Previous Estimates, by Mohammad M. Fazel-Zarandi, Jonathan S. Feinstein, Edward H. Kaplan, PLOS, September 21, 2018, Yale Insights, September 21, 2018. Includes video discussion by the authors.

How many illegal aliens reside in the United States?, by Fred Elbel, CAIRCO

How many illegal aliens are in the U.S.?, The Social Contract, Summer, 2007