Poll: One Third of Mexicans Would Move to U.S.

Article subtitle: 
U.S. Image Rebounds in Mexico... 35% Would Migrate
Article publisher: 
Pew Research
Article date: 
29 April 2013
Article category: 
Our American Future
Article Body: 

...A national opinion survey of Mexico by the Pew Research Center, conducted March 4-17 among 1,000 adults, finds that roughly two-thirds (66%) of Mexicans have a favorable opinion of the U.S. – up from 56% a year ago and dramatically higher than it was following the passage of Arizona’s restrictive immigration law in 2010, when favorable Mexican attitudes toward the United States slipped to 44%...

Mexicans are also now more of the view that the U.S. takes their country’s interests into account when deciding international policy. About half (51%) say Washington considers their country’s interests...

More than 11 million Mexicans live in the U.S., including about 6 million [to 40 million] who are in the country illegally. Mexicans are divided on whether this is good or bad for their country...

About six-in-ten Mexicans (61%) say they would not move to the U.S. even if they had the means and opportunity to do so. However, a sizable minority (35%) say they would move to the U.S. if they could, including 20% who say they would emigrate [illegally] without authorization.

9Mexicans are less likely than they were a year ago to say that people from their country who move to the U.S. have a better life there; 47% say life is better in the U.S., compared with 53% in 2012. About one-in-five (18%) say Mexicans have a worse life in the U.S., while 29% say it is neither better nor worse. However, among those who have close friends or relatives living in the U.S., 70% say these friends or relatives have achieved their goals, while just 25% believe they have been disappointed.

Three-in-ten Mexicans say they personally know someone who went to the U.S. but returned to Mexico because the person could not find work. About a quarter (27%) know someone who has been deported or detained by the U.S. government for immigration reasons in the last 12 months...



CAIRCO Research:

As of May 3, 2013, US population was 315, 788, 230 according to the US Census Bureau.

Mexico's population was 116,147,000 and total fertility was 2.3 as of mid-2012, according to the Population Reference Bureau.

35 percent of Mexico's population who would migrate to the United States amounts to a staggering 40,651,450.  That's 40 million people, or nearly 13 percent of the total US population. 

The 20 percent of Mexico's population who state they would sneak into the United States illegally, amounts to 23,229,400, or 7.4 percent of the total US population.

Thus, with our incredibly porous border, and the undeniable attraction of promises of amnesty, we can rest assured that a sizeable portion of these millions will try to sneak into the United States as illegal aliens.

It should be noted that the old, outdated number of illegal aliens currently living in the United States is 11 million. Other analyses estimate that up to 40 million illegal aliens have escaped capture at our border and are living in the United States. These are the cumulative numbers of illegal aliens since the original 1986 IRCA amnesty for illegal aliens.

Thus, if all of the people in Mexico who said they would sneak into the US illegally actually did so, the number would amount to twice the official count of all illegal aliens currently living in the United States. If all of the people in Mexico who want to emigrate into the United States actually did so, it would amount to the total number of illegal aliens already living in the US as estimated by alternative studies.

It doesn't stop there. Mexico's mid-2050 population will be 143,924,800, according to the Population Reference Bureau. That's an increase of 27,777,800. Assuming the same interest in migrating to the US, an additional 5,555,560 Mexicans will want to sneak illegally into the US, and a total of 9,722,230 will intend to migrate to the US. That's in addition to the numbers today, calculated above, who want to migrate to the US.

The United States is under no obligation to act as Mexico's population relieve valve and to be forced to accept up to 50,373,680 new job seekers by 2050. That 50 million would be nearly 16 percent of today's US population. 

Why would we want to grow US population by another 16 percent within 40 years?