A slow-motion Colorado River disaster - a people longage in the Southwest

On Aug. 7, the head of the Southern Nevada Water Authority called for federal disaster relief to address the consequences of water scarcity in the Colorado River system. On Friday, the Bureau of Reclamation announced it would be forced to cut the flow of water into Lake Mead in 2014 to a historic low...

A nearly century-old body of agreements and legal decisions known as the Law of the River regulates water distribution from the Colorado River among seven states and Mexico. Two major reservoirs help collect and distribute that water. Lake Mead disburses water to Nevada, Arizona, California and Mexico. Mead gets its water from Lake Powell, which collects its water from Utah, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico. For the first time, Lake Powell releases will fall below 8.23 million acre-feet of water, to 7.48 million acre-feet, potentially reducing allotments down the line and setting off a cascade of significant consequences.

First, if recent dry weather in the Colorado River basin continues, declining water levels in Lake Powell could cut off power production at Glen Canyon Dam as early as winter 2015, affecting power supply and pricing in six states.

Second, less water coming into Lake Mead from Lake Powell may bring the level in Mead below an intake pipe that delivers water to Las Vegas by spring 2015...

By winter 2015, Lake Mead also may dip to a level that would result in a major decline in power generation at Hoover Dam...

These Bureau of Reclamation projections prompted Pat Mulroy, general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority, to call for federal disaster relief to mitigate the situation...

If anything, Mulroy is understating the situation. What's at stake on the Colorado River, in addition to increased power and water costs, is drinking water for 36 million Americans, irrigation water for 15% of our nation's crops and a $26-billion recreation economy that employs a quarter of a million Americans.

"Disaster relief" implies temporary measures, but the drought in the Southwest is not an isolated incident; it is a long-term reality...

Demand on the Colorado River's water exceeds supply. According to a 2012 Bureau of Reclamation study, average river flow could decrease by nearly 10% by mid-century...

CAIRCO Notes:

This article fails to address both of the crucial factors affecting Colorado River water availability. One is the amount of water available for human extraction. The amount of this finite natural "resource" will vary naturally over time according to precipation and runoff patterns. Climate change, of course, will introduce an additional externality that will affect hydrological cycles.

The other significant factor is increasing demand for Colorado river water. US Population is projected to double this century, driven predominantly by mass immigration. It is abundantly clear that the Colorado river is virtually drained dry by human extraction before it ever reaches the Gilf of California.

The true problem is not a water shortage. Rather, the problem is a people longage.